For what it’s worth, I chose to take the hard foam sleeping pad, mostly because I know how it’ll behave and hold up. I’m a little leery of the unknown… when venturing into the unknown.
I made a last minute substitution to wear my hiking boots and bring my sneakers as spares/alternates, rather than wearing the sneakers and an old set of slip on shoes for in camp. This was prompted by the weather: the boots are somewhat waterproof. Hiking now in the mud at Ludington State Park, I’m glad I chose them.