We’re at the edge of reliable weather forecasting for the beginning of the ride north, and the outlook is… mixed. 50% chance of rain on Day 1 (Saturday), mostly sunny and temps in the 90s on Day 2, 30% chance of rain on Day 3, and partly cloudy on Day 4. (And yes, this is looking at forecasts for each part of the state where I’ll be that day.)
About the only conclusion I can draw from this is that I will be using Frogg Toggs at some point. Of course I was hoping not to. (Stranger things have happened. I spent over a month bicycling in soggy Great Britain, and barely got sprinkled on.) But I can deal with it. It certainly isn’t going to cancel or delay the trip.
My plan for dealing with rain depends on the kind of rain. For just a front moving through, I’ll try to wait it out some place dry. If it’s going to be off and on, I’ll keep the rain gear handy as I ride (or sight-see) and wear it as needed. If it’s an all-day monsoon, I’ll cross that bridge if I come to it. Probably just gear up and muddle on.
(At least – unlike backpacking in the wilderness – I’ll have some options for getting out of the rain besides my tent… and the occasional outhouse. During one particular day of unrelenting rain on Isle Royale, with the nearest shelter miles away, I took refuge for half an hour in a tiny outhouse at a campsite along the trail. I wasn’t able to dry out much, but it was a good mental-health break.)
I don’t want to turn this into a weather blog, but… the forecast for Day 1 has been “upgraded” to 60% chance of thunderstorms, and that talk about sun on Day 2… gone. {sigh} The weather further downstream is looking OK, though.
And now the forecast is more certain: thunderstorms for Day 1 to Ludington, especially in the morning. And “windy”, up to 25mph. Day 2 and 3 are “only” a 40% chance of rain.